Washington Has a War It Refuses to Name
Washington has discovered a new category of conflict. A war that cannot be called a war. JD Vance now argues that the confrontation with Iran...
Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Becoming a Sovereign-Debt Crisis
Europe is entering winter with an energy problem. It may leave it with a fiscal one. The renewed fighting between the United States and Iran...
The Yen Could Trigger the Next Dollar Sell-Off
The yen’s latest rally looks modest compared with July’s intervention. Its implications may be much larger. The currency jumped as much as 1.2% against the...
Bessent’s Real Opponent Is the Global Price of Capital
Scott Bessent wanted to slow the rise in American borrowing costs. The market gave him about two weeks. The US 30-year Treasury yield has returned...
The World Is Repricing the Cost of Time
Something larger than another bond sell-off is happening. Global sovereign yields have climbed back to levels last seen around the financial crisis. Japan’s 10-year yield...
The Next Food Inflation Shock Starts With Diesel
The next inflation shock may not begin in an oil field. It may begin in a Brazilian soybean farm. Brazil is entering its planting season...
Trump Can Control the Oil. He Cannot Control the Politics
Donald Trump may have secured access to one of the largest pools of oil on earth. He has not secured the politics around it. The...
Warsh Has Put the Fed on Trial in September
Kevin Warsh went to Jackson Hole determined not to give markets forward guidance. He may have given them something more consequential instead. By insisting that...
Europe’s Next Inflation Shock Is Sitting in Its Gas Tanks
Europe’s inflation problem is changing shape again. Oil dominated the first phase of this year’s energy shock. Natural gas may dominate the next one. European...