GLOBAL MACRO INSIGHTS

The Art of Surrender: How Trump Turned Victory into Tehran’s Greatest Strategic Gift

Wars are normally judged by the territory conquered, the armies destroyed, or the regimes overthrown. Far less frequently are they judged by what ultimately emerges...

The Fed’s Great Reset

Only a few weeks ago, markets were obsessed with one question. When would the Federal Reserve start cutting rates again? Today, they are asking a...

The Price of Peace

Markets celebrated the announcement of the interim agreement between the United States and Iran as though geopolitical risk had suddenly disappeared. Investors immediately priced the...

The Bond Market Has Spoken

The war may be fading. The bond market is not. Since the announcement of the fragile US-Iran agreement, investors have rushed to celebrate the return...

The Real Winner of the Iran War

For months, markets focused on the obvious losers. Iran suffered devastating infrastructure damage. Israel failed to achieve many of its strategic objectives. The United States...

One Click Away from the Next Banking Collapse

The next banking crisis may not begin with bad loans. It may begin with a smartphone notification. For generations, bank runs followed a relatively predictable...

Japan Joins the Global Tightening Club

For nearly three decades, Japan occupied a unique place in global finance. While the rest of the world worried about inflation, Japan worried about deflation....

Peace or Pause? The Hormuz Agreement Changes Everything, And Nothing

Financial markets reacted exactly as expected. Oil fell. Equities rallied. Bond yields eased. Investors celebrated what appeared to be the end of the most dangerous...

Europe Chooses Inflation Over Illusion

The European Central Bank has finally accepted what markets have been slowly discovering for months. The inflation shock is no longer an energy story. It...