Donald Trump has added another weapon to his protectionist arsenal, vowing to make it painfully expensive for any country attempting to ditch the US dollar. The former president-turned-Republican candidate declared that nations turning away from the greenback could kiss their trade with the US goodbye, thanks to a nifty little 100% tariff on their goods.

“If you abandon the dollar, you’re not doing business with the US,” Trump told his loyal fans at a rally in the key battleground state of Wisconsin. In true Trump fashion, this came after months of backroom discussions with his economic advisers on punishing allies and adversaries for daring to consider bilateral trade in non-dollar currencies. According to those in the know, options on the table included export controls, currency manipulation fees, and tariffs—because why stop at just one punishment?

Standing before his adoring crowd at the Central Wisconsin Airport in Mosinee, Trump reiterated his long-held view: protectionism is the way forward. He also shared his concern that the dollar has been “under siege” for the past eight years. And while some nations like China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa were busy discussing de-dollarisation at a summit last year, Trump declared his undying love for the dollar, promising it would remain the world’s reserve currency—no matter how many tariffs it takes.
Despite murmurs about the decline of dollar dominance, the greenback still made up 59% of global foreign exchange reserves in Q1 2024, with the euro trailing far behind at 20%, according to the International Monetary Fund. So much for the siege, right?

Trump’s latest rally occurred in Wisconsin, one of the most crucial swing states in his fight against Democratic rival Kamala Harris. Both candidates are scrapping for the state’s working-class voters, who are none too impressed with President Joe Biden’s economic policies and are more than happy to listen to Trump’s populist promises.

Remember when Donald Trump rode into office with promises to fix the global trade system and bring American manufacturing back? Spoiler alert: It didn’t quite work out that way. Instead, we got four years of trade wars, tariffs on everything from steel to soybeans, and a dollar that remained afloat despite all the chaos.

First, Trump thought he could scare China into submission by slapping tariffs on $360 billion worth of imports. China responded by making American farmers pay the price—literally. So, the president who claimed he’d “make America great again” ended up bailing out farmers with billions of taxpayer dollars because they lost their biggest market. Indeed, Brilliant. Then there was the “America First” policy, where Trump pulled out of trade deals and rewrote NAFTA, boasting about a shiny new USMCA deal that was… NAFTA 2.0. He even threw tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada, Mexico, and Europe—why not alienate your closest allies while you’re at it?

Despite the tariff tantrums, the US dollar remained the world’s reserve currency despite Trump’s best efforts. He loved complaining that the dollar was too strong and hurting exports, but it mostly held its ground. Ironically, toward the end of Trump’s term, the euro gained a little against the dollar—not because Europe suddenly became a powerhouse, but because the US economy was busy playing trade war whack-a-mole and dealing with a pandemic.

So, what did four years of tariffs and trade wars achieve? Trump managed to isolate the US globally, make American businesses and consumers pay more for goods, and give farmers government handouts to compensate for his trade policies. And despite all the drama, the factories didn’t come back, the dollar didn’t crumble, and the euro didn’t rise to power.
As Trump gears up for another run, he’s dusting off the tariff playbook again. Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that Trump’s version of “winning” usually means someone else gets stuck with the bill.