Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump’s re-election is viewed as a setback for global climate action. The president-elect has made it clear he plans to scrap Biden’s clean energy subsidies, dismantle vehicle and power plant emissions standards, and ramp up fossil fuel production. “We’ve got more liquid gold, oil, and gas,” he boasted in his early-morning victory speech, “than any other country in the world.”

Yet, the most significant impact of a second Trump administration might not be felt in the United States but in China.
It’s a matter of scale. China accounts for nearly a third of the world’s carbon emissions—around 2.5 times that of the U.S. So, a 20% cut in Chinese greenhouse gas emissions would be equivalent to halving U.S. emissions. As implausible as that may sound, it’s not entirely out of reach.

The European Union has managed a 20% reduction over the past decade. It could achieve this goal if China maintains its current renewable energy trajectory and tempers its voracious electricity consumption to more typical levels for other fast-growing, high-income economies. The real question is whether Beijing actually wants to.

Beijing isn’t thrilled about its climate policy being dictated by the White House, especially not under Trump. However, the shape U.S. policies take in Washington and how Chinese leaders respond to this new reality will likely prove crucial in the year ahead.
There are two possible paths forward. One option is for the U.S.’s dismantling of climate policies to serve as an excuse for China to follow suit. With its own economy slowing and stimulus measures on the horizon, Chinese leaders might decide to implement a modest climate agenda that gives them more leeway to keep growth on track.
When pollution levels seemed to peak a decade ago, China reversed its environmental commitments as Trump’s trade wars took shape, fuelling a national economic boost through a construction and real estate boom, both heavy on carbon emissions.
Alternatively, President Xi Jinping could double down on China’s role as a global leader in clean energy. China is now a high-income economy, making it harder to align with the developing nations it seeks to recruit as partners in countering the U.S.-led global order.

However, China’s solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicle exports present a unique opportunity to supply emerging economies with the energy they need to grow. A “Green Marshall Plan” for the Global South could be a potent source of soft power—something Beijing has notably struggled to establish under Xi. Cleaner skies, water, and food would also showcase the government’s ability to improve living standards, even as income growth slows—a long-standing priority for Xi.

The coming months will be crucial in determining China’s path. This week, United Nations members will convene in Azerbaijan for the COP29 climate conference, which might be Washington’s last chance to significantly impact climate diplomacy for years to come.
China is expected to release its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by late February. This is a plan for emissions reductions over the coming decade, in line with its 2015 Paris Climate Agreement commitments.
These NDCs are more than just paper exercises. Policies implemented through previous global cycles have already reduced warming projections from 4.8 degrees Celsius in 2010 to 2.4°C today, and governments tend to meet the targets they set, according to a UN report last month.
Furthermore, Chinese bureaucrats will spend much of the following year refining their 15th Five-Year Plan, likely the closest thing to a change in government seen in a one-party state. Renewable energy and carbon emissions peak goals are at the top of the list, though whether this will translate into real progress remains to be determined.

This quiet shift in Beijing’s policy direction may ultimately matter far more than the public squabbles of Washington’s lame-duck period.
The risk for the U.S. is that China realises that doubling down on green initiatives will enhance its wealth and global standing—all while diminishing that of its rival.
Trump seems set to fortify the U.S. economy behind tariff walls and consolidate its role as the world’s top fossil fuel producer. Suppose China wants to build the alliances needed to achieve its ambition of global dominance. In that case, it has the perfect opportunity to present itself as the clean alternative to a declining, oil-soaked American empire.