Germany is heading for early elections this February, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) agreed with opposition MPs, setting the stage for a showdown with the conservative CDU/CSU alliance led by Friedrich Merz. The election, now slated for 23 February—seven months earlier than initially planned.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has plunged into political turmoil following Scholz’s dismissal of his finance minister, Christian Lindner, from the Free Democratic Party (FDP). This ousting effectively dissolved the three-party coalition government, which included the Greens, stripping it of a majority in the Bundestag. Scholz is now scheduled to face a confidence vote on 16 December. Should he fail, he can request that the President dissolve parliament, triggering elections within 60 days.

As Germany braces for this electoral upheaval, it finds itself in troubled waters. The nation’s economic outlook has darkened, plagued by a struggling manufacturing sector and increasing woes in the automotive industry. Adding to the strain, the new US administration has openly threatened European businesses with fresh tariffs and maintains contentious relationships with some of Washington’s traditional allies.
While Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is the current frontrunner, Scholz remains defiant. On Sunday, he asserted his ability to pull off an unexpected comeback—just as he did in 2021 when he became chancellor despite poor polling numbers. Yet, a recent Forsa poll for RTL/ntv suggests a steep uphill battle, with 32% of Germans supporting Merz directly as chancellor, 20% favouring the Green Party’s Robert Habeck, and only 16% backing Scholz.

Merz hasn’t held back, declaring at a conference in Berlin that it’s time for Scholz to make way. “Germany is a sleeping middle power that must become an active middle power. I will secure a new leadership in Europe for Germany.” With the CDU/CSU alliance leading with over 30% in the polls, they’re well-positioned to reclaim the chancellery after losing to the SPD three years ago.
The SPD is languishing in third place, with around 16% support, trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which sits at approximately 18%. The Greens hold around 11%, and the new left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht has garnered around 8%. The FDP, meanwhile, is teetering on the edge with only 3%, far below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

In an attempt to hold his ground, Scholz has been reluctant to rush into a confidence vote, hoping to pass several pending bills, including measures to ease tax burdens on workers and assist German manufacturers. Additionally, the federal budget for 2025 and a supplementary budget for 2024 are awaiting parliamentary approval. Merz’s CDU/CSU has signalled a willingness to cooperate on the 2024 financial plan, though this brief collaboration might do little to bridge the deeper political rift.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, not just for Germany but for Europe. Political analysts suggest prolonged coalition talks could delay the next government’s formation until at least April, leaving Germany—and, by extension, Europe—navigating geopolitical shifts and economic instability without stable leadership.

The political disarray comes as German industry leaders echo calls for swift elections, citing a pressing need for stability. The German economy has yet to find footing following the pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, with some economists predicting a second consecutive year of production decline in 2024. The nation’s manufacturing sector, the backbone of its economy, is grappling with weak foreign demand, high borrowing costs, and many structural issues on the domestic front.
Investor sentiment has also suffered. In November, the ZEW Institute’s economic sentiment index unexpectedly fell from 13.1 to 7.4, signalling growing pessimism over Germany’s economic prospects.

Adding to the European concerns, the potential for a CDU/CSU-led “grand coalition” with the SPD or even the Greens as a junior partner raises questions about Germany’s future stance within the EU. Merz’s rhetoric of restoring Germany’s “leadership in Europe” may imply a more assertive German presence, but whether this translates into constructive engagement or friction with EU allies remains uncertain.

In the meantime, Europe watches with bated breath. The continent relies heavily on German stability, particularly in times of geopolitical tension and economic fragility. A fragmented Germany risks weakening the EU’s collective response to global challenges, leaving European partners anxious about Berlin’s capacity to offer consistent leadership.
In summary, Germany’s political turbulence is not just a domestic issue. With economic uncertainties, strained transatlantic ties, and critical EU decisions ahead, the outcome of Germany’s early election could shape the nation’s future and the trajectory of Europe itself. For now, however, it seems Europe will have to wait—and hope that stability returns to its most significant and most influential member state.