Despite the thick fog of uncertainty wafting from President Donald Trump’s tariff-happy West Wing, the American labour market remained upright in April. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000—moderately healthy if you’re into slow-motion resilience—and unemployment remained a flat 4.2%. Not bad, considering Washington’s trade policies seem designed to make economic forecasting feel like roulette at a crooked casino.

Beneath the headline numbers, a tale of strategic anxiety unfolds. Businesses, bracing for a fresh barrage of Trumpian tariffs, have surged to front-load imports, distorting the economic picture. The result? Imports ballooned at an annualised 41.3%—the biggest jump in five years—while the GDP took a modest tumble earlier in the year. But who’s counting? Certainly not the administration, which prefers to focus on headline jobs and ignore the economic whiplash caused by its own unpredictable policy spasms.

As Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola dryly observed, the keyword in the labour report was “resilience”—not “recession,” though he prudently suggested we dial back any euphoria. The message: enjoy the numbers while they last. The markets took note—stocks climbed, Treasury yields ticked up, and investors quietly trimmed expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. The dollar, ever the realist, stayed grounded.

Meanwhile, Trump took to social media (where else?) to crow about the jobs report and pressure the Fed—again—to slash rates, shouting, “NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD CUT!!!” A sentiment no doubt scrawled in all-caps crayon across the Oval Office whiteboard.

Wage growth was respectable if unremarkable—driven largely by healthcare and a rush in transport and warehousing as firms scrambled to beat the tariff clock. Manufacturing, that sector Trump promised to resurrect like some economic Lazarus, actually lost jobs, thanks to the sharpest production downturn since 2020. Presumably, the MAGA hats were unavailable for comment.

The federal government continued its job-shedding streak—three months and counting—as Elon Musk’s notional Ministry of Government Efficiency kept hacking away at headcounts. Perhaps they’ll replace civil servants with SpaceX interns.

Labour participation ticked up, particularly among prime-age workers, suggesting some Americans still believe in capitalism’s promise—if not its execution. But household confidence is fragile. Inflation may be cooling on paper, but persistent price pressure squeezes low-income families while the wealthy are still licking their wounds from a jittery stock market.

Let’s not forget Trump’s trade theatrics. With effective tariff rates now brushing 23%—a century-high benchmark even Smoot and Hawley might blush at—the economy’s being held together with duct tape, deregulation, and bravado. While Trump insists tariffs will boost domestic industry and correct trade imbalances, economists warn of looming blowback. Fewer exports, squeezed investment, and strained households don’t tend to spark roaring booms.

Indeed, major employers from UPS to Whirlpool are eyeing job cuts, preparing for a consumer pullback and adjusting to a “new normal” where economic planning must account for impulsive, tweet-triggered policy shifts.

So yes, the April jobs report may look passable at a glance, but the underlying message is one of fragility masked by bravado. It’s the economic equivalent of whistling past a construction site where the scaffolding is visibly shaking.

To summarise, things are holding—for now—but once the real effects of Trump’s tariff tirades hit, all bets are off.