In a dramatic escalation with potentially seismic consequences, President Donald Trump authorised unprecedented airstrikes against Iran, triggering global alarm just as the world economy teeters under trade tensions and inflationary pressures.
Washington’s decision to launch direct military action against the Islamic Republic — deploying 125 aircraft, Tomahawk missiles from a submarine, and no fewer than 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators — marks a historic shift in US foreign policy. For the first time, America has taken direct aim at Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The result: soaring geopolitical risk and oil prices jumping nearly 6% as markets opened in Asia this morning.
Analysts warned that $100 oil is no longer a hypothetical if Iran chooses to retaliate — a likely scenario given Tehran’s vow to “reserve all options”. Meanwhile, Israel continues its barrage unabated, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict.
The Iranian ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, declared that the “timing, nature, and scale” of Iran’s response will be determined by its armed forces. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed that Tehran’s military bases are on high alert, with US assets in the region marked as potential targets.
Back in Washington, Trump responded with typical bravado, threatening a “much larger” response should Iran retaliate — even musing, once again, about regime change. Unsurprisingly, this sabre-rattling has prompted security lockdowns in major US cities, with no credible threat yet identified — but a heightened sense of vulnerability all the same.
Strategically, the efficacy of the strikes remains unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency has admitted it cannot currently verify the damage to Iran’s highly fortified Fordow facility nor locate the over 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity. It is a worrying blind spot, to say the least.
Markets, meanwhile, are responding as one might expect. Crude is rising, stock futures are tumbling, and airlines like British Airways and Singapore Airlines are cancelling Gulf-bound flights. Two supertankers abruptly turned away from the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which nearly a fifth of global oil flows — underscoring the potential for major supply disruptions.
Even US allies are growing uneasy. While Moscow and Beijing issued predictable condemnations, the responses from London and Paris were more telling. Support, it seems, is thinning.
As for Iran, it finds itself uncomfortably isolated. Despite years of funding proxy militias across the region, none appear willing — or able — to come to its defence. And though Foreign Minister Araghchi is headed to Moscow, Russia has made it abundantly clear: the recently signed cooperation treaty does not include mutual defence obligations.
Back in Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to continue his military campaign against Iran and Hamas. Israel’s Defence Forces claimed on Sunday to have struck missile launch sites, radar stations, and satellite facilities deep inside Iran.
Of course, the timing of this offensive — just as the global economy strains under slowdowns forecast by the IMF, World Bank, and OECD — could hardly be worse. The expansion of the conflict increases the risk of an energy shock and inflation spike, precisely what central banks were hoping to avoid.
The Trump administration argues that boldness projects strength. But history tends to judge such gambles more harshly. Especially when they unleash chaos in one of the world’s most volatile regions and risk further fracturing a fragile economic order.
There is no denying that Iran’s nuclear ambitions require attention. But launching a full-scale air assault with no exit strategy — and at a time of domestic and global instability — seems less like policy and more like provocation.
If energy prices surge and global growth slows further, the White House may discover that bunker-busting bombs don’t come with a backstop. The geopolitical consequences of this moment will likely reverberate far beyond the Strait of Hormuz — and long after the missiles have stopped falling.