As Donald Trump and his advisers begin circling for a new Federal Reserve chair, they face an awkward little detail: Jerome Powell might not be going anywhere.

Although Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May, he could legally remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028. True to central banker form, he has refused to confirm whether he’ll graciously bow out or linger silently in the background—still very much capable of influencing monetary policy. This ambiguity has forced Trump’s team to sketch out multiple “what-if-he-stays” scenarios. After all, the president is hunting for a Fed chief who’ll enthusiastically deliver his preferred brand of rate-slashing populism.

“I’ve got two or three top contenders,” Trump boasted without naming a soul. Among the most eyebrow-raising ideas floated by his aides? Having Scott Bessent simultaneously serve as Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair. It is a neat throwback to the pre-1935 era before Congress had the bright idea to separate monetary policy from partisan ambition.

A White House official hastily dismissed the dual-role chatter as “fake news,” while Bessent himself kept the theatre alive on Bloomberg TV: “I’ll do what the president wants, but I think I’ve got the best job in Washington.” Clearly, modesty wasn’t on the teleprompter.

Trump has been unusually blunt: the next Fed chair must be “someone who wants to cut rates.” Powell, to his credit (or perhaps self-preservation), has refused to be drawn into that game. He continues to signal caution, arguing that more clarity is needed to assess whether Trump’s tariffs will unleash a fresh round of inflation—an inconvenient truth when you’re trying to juice the economy on the eve of an election.

When asked—yet again—about his plans during a panel of central bankers this week, Powell responded coolly: “I have nothing to tell you on that.” A masterclass in strategic opacity and precisely the kind of thing that has Trump’s team fuming.

For them, Powell’s silence is less about discretion and more about defiance—a stubborn refusal to make life easier for a president eager to seize monetary control. Should Powell decide to stay on as a regular board member, Trump would be limited to just one Fed appointment in his first year, with Governor Adriana Kugler’s term ending in January. Hardly the blank slate they were hoping for.

Even Bessent has acknowledged the Powell predicament. His solution? Appoint someone as a governor now and promote them to chair later. Failing that, find someone already sitting at the table. It’s a stretch, but then again, so is pretending this is all business as usual.

Trump, never one to leave a grudge alone, has previously mused about firing Powell outright. But a recent Supreme Court decision has made that route far trickier, requiring actual cause rather than mere presidential irritation.

That hasn’t stopped the campaign of pressure. Trump ally Bill Pulte accused Powell of misleading lawmakers over the cost of Fed building renovations—a scandal worth invoking the legal clause of “for cause” dismissal. Trump, ever subtle, then posted on social media that Powell should “resign immediately.” Subtlety, it seems, is a central banker’s forte.

Against this overcharged political backdrop, the question of Fed leadership has taken on a rare level of volatility. Historically, Federal Reserve chairs have quietly exited at the end of their terms. But then again, history didn’t have to deal with Trump, Twitter, or tariffs.

Earlier this year, Governor Michael Barr stepped down as Vice Chair for Supervision but stayed on the board—reducing Trump’s ability to reshape the institution entirely. “The independence of the Federal Reserve is essential to fulfilling our mandate,” Barr noted at the time. Not everyone got the memo.

Among Trump’s possible picks are Christopher Waller (a current Fed governor and a Trump appointee), Kevin Warsh (the Fed’s answer to a Wall Street hawk), Kevin Hassett (former NEC director), and David Malpass (of World Bank fame). Each carries varying degrees of policy experience and loyalty—though the latter seems to weigh more heavily in this process.

Even if Powell is out as chair, he could continue to shape the Fed’s decisions from within. The FOMC operates by majority, and Powell has spent years cultivating relationships across the 19-member committee. The next chair—particularly if they’re an outsider—may find that influence and credibility are not quite transferable.

Powell has earned deep loyalty among governors and staff. “If Trump appoints a political lapdog, that loyalty could persist—and undermine the new chair from day one.”In other words, the more Trump pushes for a rate cutter, the more he risks installing someone who looks like a stooge.

As for Powell, asked whether he had a message for Trump or any reflections on the political storm surrounding him, he simply said: “I’m focused on doing my job. The goal is to use our tools to meet the objectives set by Congress.”

A bland answer on the surface—but in this climate, refusing to engage may be the most powerful form of resistance available.