As Ukraine and its allies tried to digest Donald Trump’s latest volte-face, this time a sudden burst of optimism about Kyiv’s chances against Russia, it quickly became clear that the US president’s familiar trick was back in play: pile pressure not on Moscow, but on Europe.
Trump fired off a social media post retracting his earlier claim that Ukraine had “no cards left to play” in the war. Stirring stuff, except he offered not a single new US measure to support Kyiv. Instead, he handed the burden back to Europe, without even mentioning tougher sanctions on Russia.

Ukrainian and European officials dutifully welcomed Trump’s more upbeat tone after he met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly in New York. Privately, however, they were far more cautious: the subtext was clear, Washington would provide just enough to keep the lights on, but Europe was being told to carry the war on its shoulders. And as ever with Trump, today’s position could be abandoned tomorrow.

Trump’s assertion that Ukraine could claw back the 20% of territory lost to Russia with European support runs counter to most allied intelligence assessments, which see, at best, a bloody stalemate. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has intensified its bombardment since Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, even as Russian ground gains remain limited.
Calling Russia a paper tiger on the brink of economic collapse is just Trump trying to needle Putin; it doesn’t mean he’s planning to act.
Russia’s economy, to be fair, is beginning to feel the squeeze. Moscow has floated tax hikes to cover spiralling war costs, while Ukrainian strikes on energy and logistics are biting deeper behind enemy lines. But Trump has made a habit of blustering about “radical new sanctions” only to give Putin more breathing room quietly.

This week, US officials tried to reassure jittery allies that the administration grasped the need for “new thinking” after Russia’s escalation since the Alaska summit, which recently included poking NATO airspace. For many allies, Trump’s renewed emphasis on a Ukrainian victory was preferable to his previous demands that Kyiv cede land in exchange for “peace.”
“You can see the president’s frustration with Putin,” insisted US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz on Fox News. “Under his leadership, Europe is finally stepping up.”
Translated: Trump is determined to make this Europe’s war. A White House official stated this, emphasising that the president views Ukraine as a European responsibility.

Which brings us to energy. Trump has ramped up demands for Europe to cut what remains of its Russian oil and LNG imports, which have already been significantly reduced since 2022. Brussels, eager to keep him placated, has promised to accelerate its phase-out. But Trump’s call for 100% tariffs on India and China, now major buyers of Russian fuel, is another story. The EU has a limited appetite for such “secondary sanctions,” especially given its dependence on trade with Beijing.
The irony? Trump has already imposed tariffs on India over Russian oil, while simultaneously soft-pedalling on China, shelving tax hikes earlier this year in the name of trade negotiations.
Closer to home, Trump has also avoided pressuring Hungary and Slovakia, the last EU holdouts still hooked to Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline. Instead, he called Hungary’s Viktor Orbán “a friend” and suggested that “a quick chat” might persuade him to change course, so much for consistency.

The US could, of course, move faster to hit Moscow where it hurts by aligning its oil price cap with the EU’s stricter $47.60 per barrel threshold. However, such practical steps are rarely a priority for Trump.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, the message is simple: escalate the war, squeeze Kyiv harder, and assume Trump won’t intervene decisively. With Putin, Trump always seeks a deal and aims to profit from it.
In other words, Washington isn’t so much leading as passing the buck. Europe is left with the bill, the burden, and the battlefield, while Trump keeps one eye on his domestic base and the other on a possible “big deal” with Moscow.

For Europe, the message is brutal. Washington is no longer the backstop; it’s the auctioneer, handing over responsibility while keeping control of the narrative. Ukraine’s war is increasingly becoming Europe’s war, fought with European money, weapons, and energy bills. The US gets the headlines, Russia keeps the initiative, and China quietly counts the trade surplus. Germany’s industrial model crumbles, the EU’s “strategic autonomy” looks like a bad joke, and Brussels is forced into reactive, piecemeal measures. In the end, Trump may change his mind tomorrow, but Europe is already locked into a future of higher costs, weaker leverage, and geopolitical dependence. To put it bluntly: the continent is well and truly screwed.