The US Supreme Court’s refusal to let President Donald Trump immediately sack Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook has offered the central bank a fleeting reprieve after months of presidential tirades threatening its independence.

But Fed watchers warn the relief may be short-lived. Everything hinges on whom Trump chooses to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May—and on how far the White House pushes its campaign to bend the Fed to political will.
Trump has already parachuted his own adviser, Stephen Miran, onto the Fed’s board—on “temporary leave” from the West Wing, no less—fueling concerns the rate-setting committee is being transformed into a branch office of the Oval Office.

On Wednesday, the Court delayed ruling on Trump’s demand to oust Cook, giving the Justice Department time to appeal a lower-court decision that found she had a strong case. That means Cook stays at her post at least until oral arguments in January.
In the meantime, the Fed keeps one conciliatory voice around the table. Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Luzzetti noted Cook is likely to keep supporting rate cuts, in line with policymakers’ current projections for two more reductions in 2025.

None of this will silence Trump. His social media campaign to humiliate Powell has only intensified—last weekend posting a cartoon of himself firing the Fed chair, and by midweek denouncing “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell” as an “OBSTRUCTIONIST!”

The Supreme Court’s decision buys the Fed some independence in the short term. It makes it harder for Trump to flip the seven-member board to a majority loyal to him, which in turn could limit his ability to swap out regional Fed presidents. However, analysts note that the White House has other levers—up to and including reopening the 1951 Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord that created operational independence in the first place.

Whatever the outcome, some damage is already done. Regardless of what the Court decides in January, the president has already managed to chill independent debate.
For now, the Fed has survived another round of political theatre. But the message from Washington is clear: independence is only as strong as the Court’s patience—and Trump’s attention span.