The War Has Found a Second Chokepoint
For months, the Strait of Hormuz has dominated the global energy story. Investors have focused on whether Iran could close the passage, whether the United...
Category: Commodities
The New Middle East
The latest twist in Washington’s strategy towards Iran perfectly illustrates the strategic confusion that now surrounds the Middle East. Only twenty-four hours after announcing a...
The Next Inflation Shock May Come from Farms, Not Oil
Financial markets have become obsessed with oil. Every escalation in the Middle East immediately triggers the same sequence: crude prices rise, inflation expectations rise, bond...
A War Without Peace
The ceasefire is over. The negotiations continue. This contradiction now defines the relationship between the United States and Iran. Over the weekend, both sides exchanged...
The Hormuz Illusion Is Over
Barely weeks after the announcement of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, the Middle East is once again reminding markets that geopolitical agreements and lasting peace are...
Hormuz: The Ceasefire That Never Was
Barely weeks after Washington and Tehran announced what was presented as a breakthrough interim peace agreement, events in the Strait of Hormuz have once again...
Oil Market, The Illusion of Normality
Following the dramatic events of recent months, financial markets have rapidly concluded that the energy crisis is over. Oil prices have fallen sharply from their...
The Art of Surrender: How Trump Turned Victory into Tehran’s Greatest Strategic Gift
Wars are normally judged by the territory conquered, the armies destroyed, or the regimes overthrown. Far less frequently are they judged by what ultimately emerges...
The Price of Peace
Markets celebrated the announcement of the interim agreement between the United States and Iran as though geopolitical risk had suddenly disappeared. Investors immediately priced the...