The Real Winner of the Iran War
For months, markets focused on the obvious losers. Iran suffered devastating infrastructure damage. Israel failed to achieve many of its strategic objectives. The United States...
Category: Commodities
Peace or Pause? The Hormuz Agreement Changes Everything, And Nothing
Financial markets reacted exactly as expected. Oil fell. Equities rallied. Bond yields eased. Investors celebrated what appeared to be the end of the most dangerous...
Why Markets Are Ignoring the Biggest Oil Shock in Decades
For decades, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was presented as the ultimate nightmare scenario for the global economy. Analysts spoke endlessly about $200...
America’s Iran War Is Becoming Trump’s Political Trap
For months, Donald Trump attempted to project absolute confidence over the Iran conflict. The war would be short. Iran would bend under pressure. Oil markets...
The Strait May Reopen, But America Leaves Weaker
For financial markets, the announcement of a provisional 60-day truce between the United States and Iran was enough to trigger relief. Oil prices collapsed nearly...
The Strait of Hormuz Is Becoming a toll booth
For decades, the Strait of Hormuz symbolised one of the invisible certainties of globalisation. Oil flowed. Gas flowed. Tankers crossed. Insurance markets functioned. Supply chains...
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, and the World Is Beginning to Understand What That Truly Means
For weeks, markets convinced themselves that the Iran crisis would eventually follow the familiar modern geopolitical script. Escalation. Television drama. Diplomatic statements. Controlled retaliation. Gradual...
The World Is Beginning to Look Like 2021 Again
The global economy is starting to rediscover a sensation it hoped had been buried with the pandemic: the slow suffocation of supply chains. Not yet...
China’s Reflation Was Imported Through the Strait of Hormuz
China has finally escaped deflation. Unfortunately, it did not do so through a heroic revival of domestic demand, a consumer renaissance, or the sudden rediscovery...