Germany’s Russia Question Is No Longer About Gas
The rise of the AfD in eastern Germany is usually presented as an electoral story. It is becoming an economic one. Its 44% result in...
Category: Developped World
Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Becoming a Sovereign-Debt Crisis
Europe is entering winter with an energy problem. It may leave it with a fiscal one. The renewed fighting between the United States and Iran...
Trump Can Control the Oil. He Cannot Control the Politics
Donald Trump may have secured access to one of the largest pools of oil on earth. He has not secured the politics around it. The...
Europe’s Next Inflation Shock Is Sitting in Its Gas Tanks
Europe’s inflation problem is changing shape again. Oil dominated the first phase of this year’s energy shock. Natural gas may dominate the next one. European...
Trump Is Turning North America Into a Trade Battlefield
The US-Canada dispute has crossed an important line. What began as tariff pressure designed to extract concessions is becoming a reciprocal trade war in which...
The Administration Has a Market Problem and No Policy
There is a certain irony in watching Scott Bessent fight the bond market. The Treasury Secretary built much of his career alongside George Soros and...
Germany Is Discovering the Price of Fiscal Power
For more than a decade, Germany’s bond market was defined by scarcity. The country borrowed little, balanced its budget whenever possible and transformed fiscal restraint...
America Is Taxing Its Own Supply Chain
Tariffs can extract concessions, as the latest US-Canada negotiations confirm. The problem is that, against Canada, they can also produce something considerably more damaging: higher...
Who Will Buy America’s Long Bond?
The most important question in the US Treasury market is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. It is who will buy...