GLOBAL MACRO INSIGHTS

Indonesia Becomes a New Casualty of the Iran Crisis

Indonesia may now be another major warning sign of what happens when energy shocks, currency weakness, political uncertainty, and external financing pressures collide. The current...

Turkey Is Burning Its Dollar Lifeboats

For years, emerging markets accumulated US Treasuries as a form of financial insurance. They were supposed to be the ultimate reserve asset: liquid, stable, universally...

Beijing’s Quiet Victory and America’s Shrinking Presidency

Donald Trump arrived in Beijing hoping to project strength. He leaves looking constrained, reactive and increasingly trapped by realities he no longer fully controls. Officially,...

India Begins Defending the Rupee as the Emerging-Market Stress Cycle Returns

For years, India represented the favourite emerging-market story of global investors. Strong growth. Structural reforms. Digitalisation. Expanding middle class. Geopolitical neutrality. Demographic power. Now the...

China’s Reflation Was Imported Through the Strait of Hormuz

China has finally escaped deflation. Unfortunately, it did not do so through a heroic revival of domestic demand, a consumer renaissance, or the sudden rediscovery...

Sanctions Meet Sovereignty: China Calls Washington’s Bluff

There are moments when the theatre of economic power gives way to something far more revealing: a test of credibility. This is one of them....

India’s Inflation Trap: When the Monsoon Becomes a Central Banker

India is discovering, once again, that inflation is not always born in spreadsheets, wage negotiations or fiscal excess. Sometimes, it arrives from the sky. Or,...

The Illusion of Reversal: When Beijing Tries to Reclaim What Has Already Escaped

There are decisions that reveal power, and others that betray its limits. Beijing’s order to unwind Meta’s acquisition of Manus belongs, rather uncomfortably, to both...

China’s Calm Front, Fragile Core

China today presents itself as the one major power still capable of looking composed in a world that seems determined to lose its balance. That,...