The Euro Is Becoming Europe’s Risk Premium
The euro is no longer simply falling because the dollar is strong. It is falling because Europe is becoming more expensive to trust. The single...
Category: FX
Europe Has an Inflation Problem, a Debt Problem and Now a Currency Problem
Europe’s problems are no longer arriving one at a time. They are beginning to reinforce each other. The euro has fallen to its lowest level...
Japan Raised Rates. The Yen Still Doesn’t Believe It
Japan raised interest rates. The yen fell. That tells us almost everything we need to know about the Bank of Japan’s problem. The BOJ increased...
The Yen Is Turning Into a Dollar Problem
For months, the yen needed help. Now it may be moving on its own. The Japanese currency has strengthened through ¥155 per dollar, triggering stop-loss...
The Yen Could Trigger the Next Dollar Sell-Off
The yen’s latest rally looks modest compared with July’s intervention. Its implications may be much larger. The currency jumped as much as 1.2% against the...
The Weak Dollar Is Creating an Emerging-Market Paradox
The weakening dollar is beginning to transform emerging markets. But not in the simple way investors usually imagine. For traditional investors, the combination looks almost...
If Bessent Caps Yields, the Dollar Will Pay
Scott Bessent is discovering the limits of financial engineering. After doubling planned buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, the US Treasury Secretary is now promising a new...
The BOJ’s Yen Dilemma
The United States and Japan have shown an unusual degree of coordination in defending the yen. Yet beneath that apparent unity lies a fundamental disagreement...
Japan Is Winning the Battle, Not the Currency War
Japan has spent extraordinary amounts of money defending the yen. The result, so far, is less impressive. After the first coordinated US-Japan intervention since 1998,...