The War Bill Comes Home
Wars are often presented as strategic necessities abroad. Their economic consequences, however, are eventually paid at home. The Trump administration is now asking Congress to...
Category: MARKETS
The Next Inflation Shock May Come from Farms, Not Oil
Financial markets have become obsessed with oil. Every escalation in the Middle East immediately triggers the same sequence: crude prices rise, inflation expectations rise, bond...
The AI Revolution’s Weakest Link Is No Longer the Processor
For most of the history of computing, faster processors defined technological leadership. Every generation of chips delivered more computing power, allowing software to become more...
A War Without Peace
The ceasefire is over. The negotiations continue. This contradiction now defines the relationship between the United States and Iran. Over the weekend, both sides exchanged...
Japan May Be About to Bring Its Money Home
For decades, Japan has quietly financed a significant portion of the global financial system. Its pension funds, insurers and institutional investors have channelled trillions of...
The Hormuz Illusion Is Over
Barely weeks after the announcement of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, the Middle East is once again reminding markets that geopolitical agreements and lasting peace are...
Hormuz: The Ceasefire That Never Was
Barely weeks after Washington and Tehran announced what was presented as a breakthrough interim peace agreement, events in the Strait of Hormuz have once again...
Oil Market, The Illusion of Normality
Following the dramatic events of recent months, financial markets have rapidly concluded that the energy crisis is over. Oil prices have fallen sharply from their...
The New Global Rate Regime Has Arrived
For much of the past decade, investors became accustomed to a remarkably predictable world. Inflation remained subdued, central banks stood ready to support growth at...