The Fed Is Fighting Inflation It Cannot Fully Control
The Federal Reserve has an inflation problem again, but it is not quite the same one it faced in 2022. US consumer prices rose 0.6%...
Category: Monetary policy
The Banks Are Telling the Fed Something
The Federal Reserve believes higher interest rates are slowing the US economy. The banks are showing a more complicated picture. JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo...
The ECB Is Tightening Into a Fiscal Problem
The European Central Bank still has an inflation problem. It now also has a bond-market problem. Euro-area inflation is approaching 4%, well above the ECB’s...
The ECB Succession Is Becoming Europe’s Next Political Test
The European Central Bank is preparing for a leadership change. Unfortunately, Europe is also changing around it. Isabel Schnabel’s early departure for the IMF has...
Japan Raised Rates. The Yen Still Doesn’t Believe It
Japan raised interest rates. The yen fell. That tells us almost everything we need to know about the Bank of Japan’s problem. The BOJ increased...
The Fed Hiked. The Bond Market Exhaled
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates. And bond yields fell. That apparent contradiction is probably the most important message from Wednesday’s meeting. The Fed increased...
The Fed Has Become Bessent’s Biggest Problem
Scott Bessent’s strategy was built for a different interest-rate environment. The idea was relatively straightforward. Reduce the pressure on the long end of the Treasury...
The Fed Is Walking Into a Crowded Trade
The bond market is no longer merely expecting a Federal Reserve rate increase. It is positioned for one. That distinction matters. Treasury traders have aggressively...
Trump Chose Warsh. Inflation Chose His Policy
Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump. Next week, he may have to disappoint him. US inflation came in hotter than expected in August. Core...