Iran Is Now Setting Europe’s Interest Rates
The war in Iran has reached Frankfurt. Not through diplomacy. Through inflation. The European Central Bank has raised its deposit rate by another 25 basis...
Category: Monetary policy
The Yen Could Trigger the Next Dollar Sell-Off
The yen’s latest rally looks modest compared with July’s intervention. Its implications may be much larger. The currency jumped as much as 1.2% against the...
Bessent’s Real Opponent Is the Global Price of Capital
Scott Bessent wanted to slow the rise in American borrowing costs. The market gave him about two weeks. The US 30-year Treasury yield has returned...
Warsh Has Put the Fed on Trial in September
Kevin Warsh went to Jackson Hole determined not to give markets forward guidance. He may have given them something more consequential instead. By insisting that...
Bessent Is Trying to Control the Price of America’s Debt
Scott Bessent has spent much of his career believing that markets send information. As Treasury Secretary, he is increasingly trying to change the message. Washington...
The Fed Is No Longer Setting the Global Rate Cycle
For most of the past decade, global monetary policy was organised around one central question: what would the Federal Reserve do next? That hierarchy is...
The BOJ’s Yen Dilemma
The United States and Japan have shown an unusual degree of coordination in defending the yen. Yet beneath that apparent unity lies a fundamental disagreement...
Japan Is Winning the Battle, Not the Currency War
Japan has spent extraordinary amounts of money defending the yen. The result, so far, is less impressive. After the first coordinated US-Japan intervention since 1998,...
Japan’s ¥8.5 Trillion Warning: Currency Intervention Has Become Geopolitical
For decades, foreign exchange intervention was regarded as an emergency tool, deployed occasionally to smooth excessive volatility before markets inevitably reasserted the underlying economic fundamentals....