The Bond Market Has Become the Federal Reserve
Central banks are supposed to set the price of money. That simple principle has underpinned modern monetary policy for decades. Markets responded to the Federal...
Category: Monetary policy
The Return of the Inflation Triangle
The global economy is entering a new inflationary phase, not because one single shock has overwhelmed the system, but because three distinct forces are beginning...
The Fed Is No Longer Fighting Yesterday’s Inflation
The Federal Reserve is entering its July meeting with a problem that is far more serious than a single uncomfortable inflation print. The issue is...
The ECB Is Fighting the Wrong Kind of Inflation
The European Central Bank has reached an uncomfortable point in the cycle. Inflation is no longer being driven primarily by excessive domestic demand, labour-market overheating...
The Dollar, the Bond Vigilantes and Japan’s Impossible Choice
The most important signal in global markets is not coming from the Federal Reserve. It is coming from the long end of the US Treasury...
The New Global Rate Regime Has Arrived
For much of the past decade, investors became accustomed to a remarkably predictable world. Inflation remained subdued, central banks stood ready to support growth at...
When Central Banks Become Political
For decades, the Federal Reserve’s greatest asset has not been its balance sheet, its models or even its ability to set interest rates. It has...
Warsh’s Hawkish Theatre
When Kevin Warsh was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, markets expected a decisive break with the Powell era. His speeches promised a new regime,...
The American Consumer Refuses to Break
For almost two years, markets have been waiting for the American consumer to capitulate. Every rise in inflation, every increase in interest rates, and every...