America’s Inflation Illusion Is Dying in an Oil Fire
For months, markets desperately tried to believe that inflation in the United States was under control. That illusion is now collapsing. US wholesale inflation surged...
Category: Monetary policy
America Rediscovers Inflation and the Consumer Starts Breaking
For nearly two years, Washington repeated the same comforting story. Inflation was under control. The Federal Reserve had won. The soft landing was intact. Growth...
The ECB Between Oil, War and the Ghost of Stagflation
The European Central Bank has not raised rates yet. But it has opened the door. At its latest meeting, the ECB kept the deposit rate...
A Divided Fed in a Fragmenting World
The Federal Reserve has chosen to do nothing. And in doing so, it has revealed everything. Rates were left unchanged, comfortably anchored in the 3.5%–3.75%...
The FED Becomes a Political Battlefield
The Federal Reserve was already trapped between inflation, oil shocks and a slowing economy. It now faces something more corrosive: political occupation by procedural means....
ECB, Waiting in the Smoke
The European Central Bank is edging towards caution rather than conviction. For now, the instinct in Frankfurt is to leave rates unchanged later this month...
The Fed’s New Fear: Inflation Has Not Finished Its Work
At first glance, the Federal Reserve still looks suspended in familiar ambiguity: waiting, watching, refusing to move too quickly. But the minutes of its March...
Held Rates, Rising Risks
The bond market has stopped dreaming of rescue. A few weeks ago, investors were still clinging to the idea that the Federal Reserve would ride...
The Rupee’s Reprieve, India’s Trap
The rupee has bounced. That is the headline. The problem is that the bounce changes very little. India’s central bank has chosen the regulatory route...