No Cuts, No Illusions: The Fed Rediscovers Inflation
There are moments when central banks guide markets. And there are moments when they remind them, quietly but firmly, who is still in charge. This...
Category: Monetary policy
The ECB’s Next Move May Be a Rate Hike
The European Central Bank has not raised rates. Not yet. But the fact that such a possibility is now openly circulating inside Frankfurt tells its...
Europe’s Bond Mirage
The calm lasted precisely one day. European bond markets briefly stabilised before resuming their descent, as investors digested a reality that central bankers would rather...
Euro area: Oil, War and the Return of Inflation
Inflation in the euro area has chosen the worst possible moment to reawaken. In February, consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.7% in...
ECB: When the Guardian Wavers
Central banks are built on two pillars: credibility and continuity. Remove either, and the structure trembles. Inside the European Central Bank, tremors are now perceptible....
The FED refuses to kneel
If markets were expecting docility, they misread the room. The minutes of the 27–28 January meeting of the Federal Reserve revealed a central bank far...
The Comfort of Tepidity
Inflation, that most theatrical of economic variables, chose moderation in January. After years in which the first month of the year had developed an unfortunate...
Mission Accomplished, Unease Remains: The Week America Blinked
Last week delivered one of those rare moments when the macro narrative briefly aligned — and in doing so, exposed its own contradictions. On one...
The Fed Pauses. Politics Looms
Jerome Powell has two formal opportunities left to move interest rates before the end of his term at the helm of the Federal Reserve. He...