No, Mr Bessents: Hormuz Is the Infrastructure the Gulf Cannot Replace
Scott Bessent believes the Strait of Hormuz could become almost irrelevant within two years. Qatar disagrees. The argument matters because it goes to the heart...
Japan Raised Rates. The Yen Still Doesn’t Believe It
Japan raised interest rates. The yen fell. That tells us almost everything we need to know about the Bank of Japan’s problem. The BOJ increased...
The Fed Hiked. The Bond Market Exhaled
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates. And bond yields fell. That apparent contradiction is probably the most important message from Wednesday’s meeting. The Fed increased...
The Fed Has Become Bessent’s Biggest Problem
Scott Bessent’s strategy was built for a different interest-rate environment. The idea was relatively straightforward. Reduce the pressure on the long end of the Treasury...
Europe Escaped Russian Oil. It Did Not Escape Energy Risk
Europe spent four years diversifying away from Russian oil. This week provided an uncomfortable reminder that diversification is not the same thing as security. Saudi...
The Fed Is Walking Into a Crowded Trade
The bond market is no longer merely expecting a Federal Reserve rate increase. It is positioned for one. That distinction matters. Treasury traders have aggressively...
Trump Chose Warsh. Inflation Chose His Policy
Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump. Next week, he may have to disappoint him. US inflation came in hotter than expected in August. Core...
The Middle East Is Running Out of Detours
For months, the global oil market has survived the Hormuz disruption by finding alternatives. Now the alternatives are being attacked. Saudi Arabia has shut its...
Five Percent Is Where Washington Loses Control
The US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%. That number matters less because it is round than because of what happens around it. At roughly...