The World Is Repricing the Cost of Time
Something larger than another bond sell-off is happening. Global sovereign yields have climbed back to levels last seen around the financial crisis. Japan’s 10-year yield...
The Next Food Inflation Shock Starts With Diesel
The next inflation shock may not begin in an oil field. It may begin in a Brazilian soybean farm. Brazil is entering its planting season...
Trump Can Control the Oil. He Cannot Control the Politics
Donald Trump may have secured access to one of the largest pools of oil on earth. He has not secured the politics around it. The...
Warsh Has Put the Fed on Trial in September
Kevin Warsh went to Jackson Hole determined not to give markets forward guidance. He may have given them something more consequential instead. By insisting that...
Europe’s Next Inflation Shock Is Sitting in Its Gas Tanks
Europe’s inflation problem is changing shape again. Oil dominated the first phase of this year’s energy shock. Natural gas may dominate the next one. European...
Hormuz Is Becoming a Toll Road
The latest development in the Strait of Hormuz is more important than another temporary reopening. Iran says it has reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman...
Ukraine Is Entering the Escalation Trap
The war in Ukraine is moving into a more dangerous phase, not because Russia is suddenly winning or because nuclear war has become likely, but...
Trump Is Turning North America Into a Trade Battlefield
The US-Canada dispute has crossed an important line. What began as tariff pressure designed to extract concessions is becoming a reciprocal trade war in which...
The Administration Has a Market Problem and No Policy
There is a certain irony in watching Scott Bessent fight the bond market. The Treasury Secretary built much of his career alongside George Soros and...