The Weak Dollar Is Creating an Emerging-Market Paradox
The weakening dollar is beginning to transform emerging markets. But not in the simple way investors usually imagine. For traditional investors, the combination looks almost...
The More Iran Is Squeezed, the More Dangerous the Gulf Becomes
Donald Trump is making a different bet on Iran. If military power cannot force Tehran to capitulate, economic exhaustion might. Scott Bessent is expected to...
If Bessent Caps Yields, the Dollar Will Pay
Scott Bessent is discovering the limits of financial engineering. After doubling planned buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, the US Treasury Secretary is now promising a new...
Iran Is Losing the Gulf
The collapse of the US-Iran truce matters. But the more consequential development may be happening somewhere else. The United Arab Emirates has suspended commercial and...
Bessent Is Trying to Control the Price of America’s Debt
Scott Bessent has spent much of his career believing that markets send information. As Treasury Secretary, he is increasingly trying to change the message. Washington...
Germany Is Discovering the Price of Fiscal Power
For more than a decade, Germany’s bond market was defined by scarcity. The country borrowed little, balanced its budget whenever possible and transformed fiscal restraint...
America Is Taxing Its Own Supply Chain
Tariffs can extract concessions, as the latest US-Canada negotiations confirm. The problem is that, against Canada, they can also produce something considerably more damaging: higher...
Who Will Buy America’s Long Bond?
The most important question in the US Treasury market is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. It is who will buy...
The Fed Is No Longer Setting the Global Rate Cycle
For most of the past decade, global monetary policy was organised around one central question: what would the Federal Reserve do next? That hierarchy is...