The New Middle East
The latest twist in Washington’s strategy towards Iran perfectly illustrates the strategic confusion that now surrounds the Middle East. Only twenty-four hours after announcing a...
Tag: Donald Trump
A War Without Peace
The ceasefire is over. The negotiations continue. This contradiction now defines the relationship between the United States and Iran. Over the weekend, both sides exchanged...
The Hormuz Illusion Is Over
Barely weeks after the announcement of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, the Middle East is once again reminding markets that geopolitical agreements and lasting peace are...
Hormuz: The Ceasefire That Never Was
Barely weeks after Washington and Tehran announced what was presented as a breakthrough interim peace agreement, events in the Strait of Hormuz have once again...
When Central Banks Become Political
For decades, the Federal Reserve’s greatest asset has not been its balance sheet, its models or even its ability to set interest rates. It has...
The Art of Surrender: How Trump Turned Victory into Tehran’s Greatest Strategic Gift
Wars are normally judged by the territory conquered, the armies destroyed, or the regimes overthrown. Far less frequently are they judged by what ultimately emerges...
The Real Winner of the Iran War
For months, markets focused on the obvious losers. Iran suffered devastating infrastructure damage. Israel failed to achieve many of its strategic objectives. The United States...
Peace or Pause? The Hormuz Agreement Changes Everything, And Nothing
Financial markets reacted exactly as expected. Oil fell. Equities rallied. Bond yields eased. Investors celebrated what appeared to be the end of the most dangerous...
America’s Iran War Is Becoming Trump’s Political Trap
For months, Donald Trump attempted to project absolute confidence over the Iran conflict. The war would be short. Iran would bend under pressure. Oil markets...