The ECB Is Tightening Into a Fiscal Problem
The European Central Bank still has an inflation problem. It now also has a bond-market problem. Euro-area inflation is approaching 4%, well above the ECB’s...
Tag: ecb
Europe Has an Inflation Problem, a Debt Problem and Now a Currency Problem
Europe’s problems are no longer arriving one at a time. They are beginning to reinforce each other. The euro has fallen to its lowest level...
The ECB Succession Is Becoming Europe’s Next Political Test
The European Central Bank is preparing for a leadership change. Unfortunately, Europe is also changing around it. Isabel Schnabel’s early departure for the IMF has...
Europe Escaped Russian Oil. It Did Not Escape Energy Risk
Europe spent four years diversifying away from Russian oil. This week provided an uncomfortable reminder that diversification is not the same thing as security. Saudi...
Iran Is Now Setting Europe’s Interest Rates
The war in Iran has reached Frankfurt. Not through diplomacy. Through inflation. The European Central Bank has raised its deposit rate by another 25 basis...
Europe’s Next Inflation Shock Is Sitting in Its Gas Tanks
Europe’s inflation problem is changing shape again. Oil dominated the first phase of this year’s energy shock. Natural gas may dominate the next one. European...
Germany Is Discovering the Price of Fiscal Power
For more than a decade, Germany’s bond market was defined by scarcity. The country borrowed little, balanced its budget whenever possible and transformed fiscal restraint...
The ECB Is Fighting the Wrong Kind of Inflation
The European Central Bank has reached an uncomfortable point in the cycle. Inflation is no longer being driven primarily by excessive domestic demand, labour-market overheating...
Europe Chooses Inflation Over Illusion
The European Central Bank has finally accepted what markets have been slowly discovering for months. The inflation shock is no longer an energy story. It...