ECB, Waiting in the Smoke
The European Central Bank is edging towards caution rather than conviction. For now, the instinct in Frankfurt is to leave rates unchanged later this month...
Tag: Europe
Ceasefire, Yes. Control, No.
Washington would like the world to believe that the worst is over. The reality is less comforting. A fragile pause has been announced, diplomats are...
Held Rates, Rising Risks
The bond market has stopped dreaming of rescue. A few weeks ago, investors were still clinging to the idea that the Federal Reserve would ride...
Oil Whitout Exit
Saudi Arabia has raised the price of its flagship crude for Asia to a record premium. That single move says more about the state of...
The Empire of Threats Meets the Price of Reality
The war has entered its second month, and what is becoming visible now is not American strength, but American exposure. Over the weekend, missile strikes...
Europe’s Strategic Folly Comes Due
Europe is once again discovering that moral postures are not an energy policy. For years, the continent congratulated itself on its virtue, mistaking dependency for...
Peace by Rumour, War by Design
The war now advances on two fronts: one of missiles, the other of fiction. Washington insists that talks are underway. Tehran denies them. The White...
The ECB’s Next Move May Be a Rate Hike
The European Central Bank has not raised rates. Not yet. But the fact that such a possibility is now openly circulating inside Frankfurt tells its...
The Strait Was Never Closed — It Was Taken
There are moments when markets misread events as shocks, when they search for volatility where, in fact, there is structure. This is not one of...