Who Will Buy America’s Long Bond?
The most important question in the US Treasury market is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. It is who will buy...
Tag: inflation
The Fed Is No Longer Setting the Global Rate Cycle
For most of the past decade, global monetary policy was organised around one central question: what would the Federal Reserve do next? That hierarchy is...
The Next Supply Shock Is Already Underway
The next inflation shock may not begin with oil. It may begin with diesel shortages in Russia, dry fields in Europe and a growing inability...
The Black Sea Is Becoming the World’s New Supply Chokepoint
For most of the war, the economic significance of the Black Sea was measured through energy. Oil terminals, pipelines, refineries and Russia’s ability to finance...
The Bond Market Is Starting to Set the Rules
For years, financial markets were conditioned to believe that central banks controlled the price of money. Today, that assumption is becoming much less comfortable. Two...
The World Is Running Out of Safe Energy Routes
The latest developments in the Middle East make one thing increasingly clear: the energy shock is no longer only about oil prices. It is about...
Hormuz Is Reopening, but the War Is Not Over
After months of military escalation, interrupted ceasefires and contradictory diplomatic signals, Iran and Oman appear to have reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route...
The Bond Market Has Become the Federal Reserve
Central banks are supposed to set the price of money. That simple principle has underpinned modern monetary policy for decades. Markets responded to the Federal...
Oil Is No Longer Pricing Supply. It Is Pricing Control
For much of this year, oil markets have oscillated between panic and relief. Every diplomatic headline has produced optimism. Every military escalation has restored anxiety....