Europe’s Bond Mirage
The calm lasted precisely one day. European bond markets briefly stabilised before resuming their descent, as investors digested a reality that central bankers would rather...
Tag: interest rates
Euro area: Oil, War and the Return of Inflation
Inflation in the euro area has chosen the worst possible moment to reawaken. In February, consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.7% in...
The FED refuses to kneel
If markets were expecting docility, they misread the room. The minutes of the 27–28 January meeting of the Federal Reserve revealed a central bank far...
The Comfort of Tepidity
Inflation, that most theatrical of economic variables, chose moderation in January. After years in which the first month of the year had developed an unfortunate...
America’s Two-Speed Debt Reckoning
In the fourth quarter, something shifted beneath the polished surface of the American recovery. The share of household debt in delinquency — from mortgages to...
Mission Accomplished, Unease Remains: The Week America Blinked
Last week delivered one of those rare moments when the macro narrative briefly aligned — and in doing so, exposed its own contradictions. On one...
The Fed Pauses. Politics Looms
Jerome Powell has two formal opportunities left to move interest rates before the end of his term at the helm of the Federal Reserve. He...
When the Safe Haven Starts Leaking, Treasuries Discover Geopolitics Has a Price
US Treasuries retreated as investors reassessed what had long been treated as an unquestioned refuge. The trigger was not data, nor central bank guidance, but...
The Inflation Mirage: When the Numbers Behave but the Empire Still Burns
US core inflation slowed more than expected in December, offering Washington a rare moment of numerical relief at the end of a year disfigured by...