The Day the Market Stops Believing
There are warnings that belong to the realm of theory, and others that carry the quiet weight of experience. When Henry Paulson speaks about a...
Tag: monetary policy
ECB, Waiting in the Smoke
The European Central Bank is edging towards caution rather than conviction. For now, the instinct in Frankfurt is to leave rates unchanged later this month...
The Fed’s New Fear: Inflation Has Not Finished Its Work
At first glance, the Federal Reserve still looks suspended in familiar ambiguity: waiting, watching, refusing to move too quickly. But the minutes of its March...
Held Rates, Rising Risks
The bond market has stopped dreaming of rescue. A few weeks ago, investors were still clinging to the idea that the Federal Reserve would ride...
Europe’s Strategic Folly Comes Due
Europe is once again discovering that moral postures are not an energy policy. For years, the continent congratulated itself on its virtue, mistaking dependency for...
The Quiet War Behind the War: the Chinese strategy
There is the conflict everyone sees — missiles, oil, ships stalled in narrow waters. And then there is the other one, slower, colder, infinitely more...
$2.5 Trillion Gone: When Bonds Stop Playing Safe
There are moments when markets break character. This is one of them. In March, more than $2.5 trillion evaporated from global bond markets. Not equities,...
The Illusion of Control: Bond Markets in the Age of War
There are moments when markets reveal more than they intend. Not through clarity, but through panic. Three weeks into the war with Iran, global bond...
No Cuts, No Illusions: The Fed Rediscovers Inflation
There are moments when central banks guide markets. And there are moments when they remind them, quietly but firmly, who is still in charge. This...