Euro area: Oil, War and the Return of Inflation
Inflation in the euro area has chosen the worst possible moment to reawaken. In February, consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.7% in...
Tag: monetary policy
ECB: When the Guardian Wavers
Central banks are built on two pillars: credibility and continuity. Remove either, and the structure trembles. Inside the European Central Bank, tremors are now perceptible....
The FED refuses to kneel
If markets were expecting docility, they misread the room. The minutes of the 27–28 January meeting of the Federal Reserve revealed a central bank far...
The Comfort of Tepidity
Inflation, that most theatrical of economic variables, chose moderation in January. After years in which the first month of the year had developed an unfortunate...
Mission Accomplished, Unease Remains: The Week America Blinked
Last week delivered one of those rare moments when the macro narrative briefly aligned — and in doing so, exposed its own contradictions. On one...
The Fed Pauses. Politics Looms
Jerome Powell has two formal opportunities left to move interest rates before the end of his term at the helm of the Federal Reserve. He...
Europe Calls Time on Rate Cuts
Markets are quietly, but decisively, signalling that Europe’s great rate-cutting adventure is already drawing to a close. Across the continent, investors are converging on the...
The Fed’s 2026 Reckoning: When Data Meets Debt and Illusion
The long-simmering argument in the US Treasury market over what the Federal Reserve will dare to do in 2026 is about to turn openly confrontational,...
The ECB’s 2% Illusion
Consumer prices rose 2.2% in November compared with a year earlier, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above the median forecast of economists surveyed...