Taiwan or a $10 Trillion Risk for the Global Economy
A war with Taiwan would have such an enormous cost that even those most dissatisfied with the status quo have reasons not to risk it....
Tag: USA
2024, a High Geopolitical Risk
After 2023, an excellent year for risky assets despite the war in Europe and the Middle East and an increasing confrontation between the United States...
Tense and Uncertain Equity Markets
The S&P 500 ended its longest streak of weekly gains in two decades. It was different from how Wall Street hoped to start 2024.Investors, who...
The Fed still anticipates that interest rates will remain high for some time
Policymakers agreed last month that it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance “for some time” while acknowledging that they were likely at the...
Short-term maturities will benefit from the Fed’s easing in 2024
Money market fund holders have a new reason to turn to short-term bonds. The best way to play the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards monetary easing...
Oil in 2024
Despite constant bearish talk about energy demand, global oil consumption increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023. The final stage of the post-Covid-19...
Is the Fed right to lean towards investor optimism?
The Federal Reserve now believes it can have the best of both worlds: contain excessive inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Powell surprised...
Who is right: the market or the FED?
Long-term Treasury bond options show that the outstanding open positions predicting a bond rally and lower interest rates are 2.5 times larger than those protecting...
The risk of a government shutdown in the United States persists
A shutdown would threaten a downgrade in the United States’ credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited political dysfunction as a growing social risk....