Washington and Moscow are inching towards a deal to “end” the war in Ukraine, a plan that would see Russia formally keep the territory it grabbed during its invasion. In other words, a peace settlement in which the aggressor walks away with the spoils.
According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. and Russian officials are working on a territorial carve-up ahead of a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, possibly as soon as next week. Washington is simultaneously trying to strong-arm Ukraine and its European allies into accepting the arrangement, a sell that is, unsurprisingly, far from complete.
Putin’s demands are as subtle as a sledgehammer: Ukraine must hand over the entire eastern Donbas region plus Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. That would force President Volodymyr Zelensky to pull Ukrainian troops out of the remaining pockets of Luhansk and Donetsk still under Kyiv’s control, granting the Kremlin a victory it has been unable to achieve on the battlefield since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
For Putin, this would be a masterstroke, securing direct talks with Washington on ending the war he started, while neatly sidelining Ukraine and its European backers. For Zelensky, it’s the diplomatic equivalent of being offered a “take it or leave it” ultimatum to surrender territory, while Europe braces itself to police a ceasefire as Putin quietly rebuilds his forces.
Markets, ever the opportunists, reacted instantly: U.S. Treasury yields slipped from session highs, oil prices dipped, Ukrainian bonds rallied, and the Hungarian forint hit its strongest level against the euro in nearly a year. Under the terms being floated, Russia would halt its offensive in the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along current front lines. However, it’s unclear whether Moscow intends to relinquish control of occupied areas, particularly the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest.
The White House declined to comment. The Kremlin’s Dmitry Peskov was equally tight-lipped, and Kyiv offered no immediate response. The aim, insiders say, is to “freeze” the conflict, paving the way for a ceasefire and subsequent talks on a final peace deal. The U.S. had previously pushed for an unconditional ceasefire before any negotiations, a quaint idea now abandoned in favour of geopolitical horse-trading.
Putin has been busy shoring up support, speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and leaders from South Africa, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus to share details of his 6 August meeting with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
Trump, back in the Oval Office since January and keen to be seen as the man who “fixed” Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, has grown increasingly irritated at Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire. The two leaders have spoken six times by phone since February, while Witkoff has met Putin five times in Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine has sought security guarantees to underpin any truce and urged allies to keep sanctions pressure on Moscow.
True to form, Trump has yet to impose any direct measures against Russia, though he has doubled tariffs on India for cutting purchases of Russian oil by 50%, a move that provoked outrage in New Delhi. He has now given Putin until Friday to agree to a ceasefire or face U.S. tariffs on countries buying Russian crude, a tactic aimed at weaponising global trade against the Kremlin.
Putin remains unmoved, repeating his unchanged war aims: Ukrainian neutrality, no NATO membership, and formal cession of Crimea plus four other occupied regions. Some of these territories have been under Russian control since 2014; others have never been fully conquered, despite Moscow’s formal annexation announcement in September 2022.
Ukraine’s constitution prohibits surrendering territory, and Kyiv has said it will never recognise Russian occupation or annexation. Whether Putin will agree to meet both Trump and Zelensky next week is uncertain. He has hinted at being open to a meeting “under the right conditions,” while adding that such conditions currently do not exist.
Many officials, including in Washington, remain sceptical about Putin’s interest in any peace deal that does not deliver his stated objectives. Trump, undeterred, said on Thursday he would be happy to meet Putin even without Zelensky, apparently abandoning earlier suggestions of a trilateral summit.
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that U.S. and Russian officials are finalising the details of a meeting in the coming days, with a venue already agreed. Previous U.S. proposals had even included recognising Crimea as Russian and granting Moscow de facto control over parts of other occupied Ukrainian regions, with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson theoretically returned to Ukraine.
In truth, this “peace plan” is less a blueprint for ending war than a monument to Western decline. Washington, once the self-proclaimed guarantor of a rules-based order, is now haggling over how much stolen land to gift-wrap for Moscow. Europe, paralysed by its own divisions and energy dependence, mumbles platitudes while quietly preparing to foot the bill for a frozen conflict on its doorstep. And Ukraine, the nation that bled for its sovereignty, is being politely shown the exit from its own future, abandoned not by defeat on the battlefield, but by the cold arithmetic of great power fatigue.