When Markets Lose Trust
Emerging markets have always been associated with higher volatility. Investors accept political uncertainty, weaker institutions and more pronounced economic cycles in exchange for stronger long-term...
Turkey’s Market Status Is Becoming a Strategic Risk
For years, Turkey has occupied a unique position within emerging markets. It combined the dynamism of a large economy with deep and liquid capital markets,...
Oil Market, The Illusion of Normality
Following the dramatic events of recent months, financial markets have rapidly concluded that the energy crisis is over. Oil prices have fallen sharply from their...
The New Global Rate Regime Has Arrived
For much of the past decade, investors became accustomed to a remarkably predictable world. Inflation remained subdued, central banks stood ready to support growth at...
The AI Bubble’s First Crack?
For the past two years, the investment case for artificial intelligence has been remarkably simple. Demand appeared limitless, hyperscalers announced ever larger capital expenditure plans,...
The American Labour Market Is Losing Momentum
For much of this year, the resilience of the US labour market has been one of the strongest arguments supporting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance....
When Central Banks Become Political
For decades, the Federal Reserve’s greatest asset has not been its balance sheet, its models or even its ability to set interest rates. It has...
The AI Bubble Meets Reality
For nearly two years, investors have treated artificial intelligence as a one-way trade. Every announcement of a new data centre, every increase in computing capacity...
Warsh’s Hawkish Theatre
When Kevin Warsh was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, markets expected a decisive break with the Powell era. His speeches promised a new regime,...