The Return of the Inflation Triangle
The global economy is entering a new inflationary phase, not because one single shock has overwhelmed the system, but because three distinct forces are beginning...
The Fed Is No Longer Fighting Yesterday’s Inflation
The Federal Reserve is entering its July meeting with a problem that is far more serious than a single uncomfortable inflation print. The issue is...
The ECB Is Fighting the Wrong Kind of Inflation
The European Central Bank has reached an uncomfortable point in the cycle. Inflation is no longer being driven primarily by excessive domestic demand, labour-market overheating...
Tariffs Are No Longer About China
The latest increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports appears, at first sight, almost anticlimactic. The Trump administration has raised the effective tariff on Chinese...
The Dollar, the Bond Vigilantes and Japan’s Impossible Choice
The most important signal in global markets is not coming from the Federal Reserve. It is coming from the long end of the US Treasury...
The Middle East’s Great Reordering: War, Energy and the Nuclear Race
The Middle East is no longer experiencing a series of disconnected crises. What initially appeared to be a military confrontation between the United States and...
From Hormuz to the Red Sea: The Global Supply Chain Comes Under Siege
Wars rarely remain confined to the battlefield where they begin. They evolve, adapt and seek new points of pressure. What started as a confrontation over...
The War Has Found a Second Chokepoint
For months, the Strait of Hormuz has dominated the global energy story. Investors have focused on whether Iran could close the passage, whether the United...
The War Bill Comes Home
Wars are often presented as strategic necessities abroad. Their economic consequences, however, are eventually paid at home. The Trump administration is now asking Congress to...